@article{kejsefman_nowcasting_2026,

title = {Nowcasting de la actividad económica en contextos de alta volatilidad: uso de transacciones bancarias para la gestión económica subnacional basada en evidencia},

author = {Igal Kejsefman and Agustín Caputo Bugallo and Milena Valens Upegui and Rodrigo Castro},

issn = {2525-1295},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-01-01},

journal = {Estud. econ},

publisher = {EdiUNS / Universidad Nacional del Sur},

address = {Bahía Blanca, Argentina},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lanzarotti_viseps_2026,

title = {VisEPS: a visual explorer of parameter spaces for networked models},

author = {Esteban Lanzarotti and Krešimir Matković and Ezequiel Pecker-Marcosig and Eduard Gröller and Rodrigo Castro},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12650-025-01093-2},

doi = {10.1007/s12650-025-01093-2},

issn = {1875-8975},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Visualization},

volume = {29},

number = {1},

pages = {153–167},

abstract = {Simulations of complex social systems, such as those represented by epidemiological models, have been very useful in supporting decision makers during the last pandemic. These models generally comprise a high number of parameters, which makes it hard to identify the values that best reproduce the empirical data. Furthermore, different combinations of parameters may achieve a good fit, which renders an automatic solution ill-suited to the task. A human expert is required to make the final decisions about the optimal parameter values. We present VisEPS (Visual Explorer of Parameter Spaces), a framework for visually analyzing the effects of a very large set of parameters, with the aim of fitting a geographically explicit networked model to data obtained during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a networked extension of a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to reproduce the epidemic dynamics in the city of Buenos Aires and its neighboring interconnected districts. We overlay binned scatterplots on a map, which facilitates the visual identification of each district and its connections. To further explore the model’s performance against data, additional views, such as parallel coordinates and histograms, along with drill-down mechanisms, have been incorporated. Finally, a use case is described in which the level of connectivity between districts is included in the analysis. The identification of suitable parameter ranges is facilitated by an iterative and incremental process, whereby new sets of simulations are incrementally requested, guided by interactive visual inspections. This permits the exploration of a parameter space that would otherwise be impossible to fully explore.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{pecker2025hybrid,

title = {Hybrid resource allocation control in cyber-physical systems: a novel simulation-driven methodology with applications to UAVs},

author = {Ezequiel Pecker-Marcosig and Juan I. Giribet and Rodrigo Castro},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00375497241313404},

doi = {10.1177/00375497241313404},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

journal = {SIMULATION},

volume = {101},

number = {5},

pages = {597–619},

abstract = {Designing hybrid controllers for cyber-physical systems (CPSs) where computational and physical components influence each other is a challenging task, as it requires considering the performance of very different types of dynamics simultaneously. Meanwhile, controlling each of these dynamics separately can lead to unacceptable results. Common approaches to controller design rely on the use of analytical methods. Although this approach can provide formal guarantees of stability and performance, the analytical design of hybrid controllers can become quite cumbersome. Alternatively, modeling and simulation (M&S)-based design techniques have proven successful for hybrid controllers, providing robust results based on Monte Carlo techniques. This requires simulation models and platforms capable of seamlessly composing the underlying hybrid domains. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are CPSs with sensitive physical–computational couplings. We address the development of a hybrid model and simulation platform for a data collection application involving UAVs with onboard data processing. The quality of control (QoC) of the physical dynamics must be ensured together with the quality of service (QoS) of the onboard software competing for scarce processing resources. In this scenario, it is imperative to find safe trade-offs between flight stability and processing throughput that can adapt to uncertain environments. The goal is to design a hybrid supervisory controller that dynamically adapts the use of resources to balance the performance of both aspects in a CPS, while ensuring system-level QoS. We present the end-to-end M&S-based design methodology, which can be regarded as a design template for a broader class of CPSs.},

keywords = {Cyber-Physical Systems, DEVS, QSS, UAVs},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lanzarotti_multi-scale_2025,

title = {A multi-scale agent-based model of aerosol-mediated indoor infections in heterogeneous scenarios},

author = {Esteban Lanzarotti and Andrea Pineda Rojas and Francisco Roslan and Leandro Groisman and Lucio Santi and Rodrigo Castro},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2025.2476456},

doi = {10.1080/17477778.2025.2476456},

issn = {1747-7778},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

urldate = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Simulation},

volume = {0},

number = {0},

pages = {1–19},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {We present a hybrid agent-based and equation-based simulation model to study airborne infection transmission events in heterogeneous indoor spaces. Agents move between different rooms, generating evolving networked social interactions. Suspended aerosols enable both direct and indirect transmission, shaping multi-scale contagion at local (room) and global (building layout) levels within a SEIR process. This approach provides a very flexible platform for dealing with environmental and population heterogeneities. Our model reproduces well-documented real-world contagion events and analytical models in the literature over a wide range of environments (hospitals, offices, restaurants, and classrooms). The model is applied to study transmission patterns in a typical school day, exploring three heterogeneity-driven scenarios: (i) varying break-time activity intensity, (ii) localized ventilation reductions, and (iii) flexible class/break durations, uncovering emerging nonlinear system-level dynamics. Our results show that neglecting heterogeneities can lead to considerable underestimation of attack rates. Such scenarios cannot be modeled with previous agent-based frameworks.},

note = {_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2025.2476456},

keywords = {Agent-based model, Airborne transmission, DEVS, Multi-scale simulation, QSS, Viral infection},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bergonzi_quantization-based_2024,

title = {Quantization-based simulation of spiking neurons: theoretical properties and performance analysis},

author = {Mariana Bergonzi and Joaquín Fernández and Rodrigo Castro and Alexandre Muzy and Ernesto Kofman},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2284143},

doi = {10.1080/17477778.2023.2284143},

issn = {1747-7778},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Simulation},

volume = {18},

number = {5},

pages = {789–812},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {In this work we present an exhaustive analysis of the use of Quantized State Systems (QSS) algorithms for the discrete event simulation of Leaky Integrate and Fire models of spiking neurons. Making use of some properties of these algorithms, we first derive theoretical error bounds for the sub-threshold dynamics as well as estimates of the computational costs as a function of the accuracy settings. Then, we corroborate those results on different simulation experiments, where we also study how these algorithms scale with the size of the network and its connectivity. The results obtained show that the QSS algorithms, without any type of optimisation or specialisation, obtain accurate results with low computational costs even in large networks with a high level of connectivity.},

note = {_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2284143},

keywords = {discontinuity handling, event-driven simulation, Hybrid systems, Quantized State Systems, spiking neural networks},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{castro_discrete-event_2024,

title = {Discrete-event simulation of continuous-time systems: evolution and state of the art of quantized state system methods},

author = {Rodrigo Castro and Mariana Bergonzi and Ezequiel Pecker-Marcosig and Joaquín Fernández and Ernesto Kofman},

url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00375497241230985},

doi = {10.1177/00375497241230985},

issn = {0037-5497, 1741-3133},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-07-01},

journal = {SIMULATION},

volume = {100},

number = {6},

pages = {613–638},

abstract = {In this work, we attempt to bring together the origins, main results, and recent advances on discrete-event simulation of continuous-time systems. Starting from the early approaches that aimed to represent continuous-time dynamics within the discrete-event system specification (DEVS) formalism framework, the work shows how these ideas gave place to the formalization of the quantized state system (QSS) family of numerical integration algorithms. Then, we describe the QSS algorithms, their properties, their extensions, and the main practical software tools implementing them. We also present a selection of simulation examples illustrating the main features and advantages through comparisons with state-of-the-art continuous-time simulation solvers.},

keywords = {DEVS, QSS},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ferraro_predicting_2024,

title = {Predicting land use and environmental dynamics in Argentina's Pampas region: An agent-based modeling approach across varied price and climatic scenarios.},

author = {Diego Ferraro and Felipe Ghersa and Rodrigo Castro},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002692},

doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110881},

issn = {0304-3800},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Ecological Modelling},

volume = {498},

pages = {110881},

abstract = {This study, employing the AGRODEVS Agent-Based Model (ABM), systematically examined land use dynamics in Argentina's Pampas Region. Simulations under diverse scenarios highlighted the significant role of economic determinants, particularly crop price relationships, in influencing maize or wheat/soybean double cropping prevalence. Maize-dominated landscapes consistently achieved carbon sequestration goals, while wheat/soybean landscapes faced challenges, notably in ecotoxicity. Scenarios encompassed varying climatic conditions and soybean/maize price ratios, providing insights into the interplay shaping agricultural land use decisions among individual agents. The AGRODEVS model's robust performance underscored its effectiveness in integrating economic and environmental factors, contributing to a practical understanding of sustainable land use planning complexities.},

keywords = {Agent-based modeling, Agricultural decision-making, Climate-sensitive shifts, Environmental sustainability, Land use dynamics},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}